While the Caribbean can expect heat waves beginning early this month, these are unlikely to match the temperatures the region experienced over the past two years.

This is according to the current Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter which provided a forecast for April -June 2025.

“ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions in the Pacific, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic imply:

1.      a Caribbean Heat Season with heatwaves occurring as early as April and gradually ramping up, but unlikely to match 2023 and 2024;

2.      (ii) in April, high evaporation rates, frequent short dry spells and buildup of any ongoing drought increases wildfire potential;

3.      (iii) except for the mostly dry ABC Islands, rainfall intensity and shower frequency should rise towards May (for the Bahamas, Guianas and Greater Antilles) or June (for Belize and the Lesser Antilles), resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent; the more frequent these are, the more dryness and heat, and the more erratic the occurrence of severe weather,” the newsletter said.

Please read the newsletter here