Venezuela’s resource diplomacy after Hugo Chavez: Will politics or economics triumph?

In the past few weeks there has been a lot of speculation in the Caricom and regional media about whether the PetroCaribe programme will survive without President Hugo Chávez.
The informal consensus is that the programme will not be terminated abruptly under the administration of acting President Nicolas Maduro; and if he is elected president, the programme could have a long shelf life. Further, consensus is that if opposition leader Henrique Capriles was elected to the presidency, the programme would be re-evaluated and progressively phased out.  At this stage the outcome is like a slow roll of the dice. But the issue is bigger than PetroCaribe. What is really at stake is the future of Venezuela’s current global resource diplomacy, as practiced by Chávez, the ability of the Venezuelan state to maintain it, and whether politics or economic will decide its fate.