Is the IMF programme really Jamaica’s last chance?

KINGSTON, Jamaica, Observer- ON Monday, the UK's leading Financial newspaper, the Financial Times (FT), had an article headlined "IMF bailout looks like last chance for Jamaica". The newspaper quoted what it described as a senior official involved in the talks as saying: "It's a high-risk programme, a last-ditch effort to avoid a massive adjustment, even a collapse." The article concludes by noting that "there is widespread pessimism over Jamaica's ability to enact fiscal cuts and economic reforms of the dimensions required". The first issue that needs to be faced squarely is that the article accurately reflects the view of the international financial community, including many informed Jamaicans based overseas working in the international financial sector. The questions being asked is quite simply "why will this time be different". At Tuesday's joint press conference with the IMF, Minister of Finance Peter Phillips, responding to a question about the FT's apparent scepticism, noted that it was not a surprise to anyone that the programme is difficult, and that the markets are going to take a wait-and-see position, as they want to see evidence of seriousness of purpose. He added that the apprehension in various sectors of the international financial community included the development banks, who had nevertheless committed "substantial resources".